KALAMAZOO, Mich. — Scott Sandelin didn’t want to spend a lot of time re-hashing the Friday vs Saturday thing.
You know the thing. The “9-0 on Friday, 4-4 on Saturday” thing.
Matt Wellens wrote about it this week. I devoted one of my 9 Thoughts to it, as well.
The numbers do suggest there’s a difference in UMD’s overall performances from Friday to Saturday. Using CHN’s expected goals numbers, which are not gospel but are often pretty close to what the teams are getting on a proprietary basis, here’s what we found:
FRIDAY NIGHT (9 games, 9-0, 1 OTW)
Goals: 40 (4.4 per game)
Expected goals: 24.9 (2.8 per game)
Goals against: 13 (1.4 per game)
Expected goals against: 19.3 (2.1 per game)
Even-strength shots on goal: 224 (24.9 per game)
Even-strength shots on goal against: 152 (16.9 per game)
SATURDAY NIGHT (8 games, 4-4, 1 OTW, 1OTL)
Goals: 18 (2.3 per game)
Expected goals: 22 (2.75 per game)
Goals against: 18 (2.3 per game)
Expected goals against: 21.1 (2.6 per game)
Even-strength shots on goal: 186 (23.3 per game)
Even-strength shots on goal against: 190 (23.8 per game)
Now, here’s the quote we ran in Thursday’s preview column from Sandelin. Think about these numbers as you read it.
“There’s two teams on the rink every weekend,” Sandelin said. “People forget there’s another team. People forget our league is very difficult to win one, let alone two games. Do I think that we’ve played our best? No. Do I think other teams have been a little bit better at times? Yes. I’m not going to make a bigger deal out of it. It’s hard to win two games. Everyone gets spoiled like everyone thinks you should win every frickin’ game. It’s hard. Some of the Fridays we haven’t played great either, but we found a way to win. And that’s what I want to see this team continue to do over the course of the year.”
I’m not going to put all the numbers out there again, but I went back and looked through my spreadsheet this week, and if you only look at the NCHC games, the difference is more stark.
Did UMD just forget how to play hockey on Saturdays once the NCHC schedule started? No.
Sandelin nailed this. There are two good teams playing in a game. Sometimes, things will go your way. Sometimes, they won’t. There are some things UMD can probably do better on Saturdays, but much of what we’re seeing is how hard it is to sweep series in this league.
We all want to see UMD finish this off, but Western Michigan is going to have a thing or two to say about it. The Broncos’ coaching staff assuredly went through the video from Friday and found areas for their team to improve on, ways to generate more transition hockey against UMD, something they had virtually none of on Friday. Shots that could be taken, battles that could be won, things like that. Pat Ferschweiler and his guys are good, too. Maybe they poke some holes in the Bulldogs, but maybe Scott Sandelin and his guys — who are also good — don’t allow that to happen and UMD can grind out another win.
That’s why we’re here. If we already knew, what would be the point?
Anyway, UMD inserts Jake Toll for Riley Bodnarchuk on defense.
Adam Gajan vs Hampton Slukynsky.
Lines?
Lines.
UMD forwards
Plante (Max) – Plante (Zam) – Shaugabay
Truman – Gaffney – Arnott
Anderson – Kovich – Bentz
Fischer – Shlaine – Bibby
UMD defense
Hanson – Kleber
Pionk – Pierce
Cleveland – Siepmann
Bodnarchuk
UMD goalies
Gajan – Dahlmeir – Sheffield
Western Michigan forwards
Henricks – Michaels – Whitelaw
Valente – Slukynsky (Grant) – Nehring
Hakkarainen – Spicer – Wisdom
Cowan – Kusler – Szydlowski
MacKenzie – Humphrey
(One of the two extra forwards will be a scratch)
Western Michigan defense
Sjolund – Bookman
Sharp – Crusberg-Roseen
Wallberg – Woogk
Western Michigan goalies
Slukynsky (Hampton) – Laursen – Moffatt
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