Expected goals can be a funny thing. For those unaware, here is the definition, per a pretty basic Google search.
Expected Goals (xG) in hockey is a metric that measures the probability of a shot becoming a goal, based on historical data and various factors like shot location, type, and game situation. Instead of simply counting a goal or a save, xG assigns a probability value between 0 and 1 to each shot, with higher values indicating a more likely goal. By summing the xG of all shots, one can evaluate the quality of scoring chances a team or player creates, which helps determine if a team is performing above or below their expected output.
According to College Hockey News, UMD scored seven goals Friday on 2.4 expected. Now, expected goals can be flawed, especially if reliant on the shot charts produced in the arena (some of the companies that measure xG use video analysis).
So, that’s opportunistic.
The Bulldogs’ coaches can’t be thrilled with what I thought was a sloppy defensive game on Friday, and we’ll see what corrections are made for the home end of the series.
As far as the lineup, Braden Fischer rotates back in on the fourth line for Blake Bechen (Hunter Anderson takes Bechen’s spot on the third line, as it’s back to all-freshmen), while Jake Toll plays for Brady Cleveland, who will sit out for the first time this season.
Adam Gajan vs Max Hildebrand, who plays after allowing six on 15 shots Friday.
Lines?
Lines.
UMD forwards
Plante (Max) – Plante (Zam) – Shaugabay
Truman – Gaffney – Arnott
Zaremba – Shlaine – Bechen
Fischer – Kovich – Bibby
UMD defense
Hanson – Kleber
Pionk – Siepmann
Bodnarchuk – Pierce
Toll
UMD goalies
Gajan – Dahlmeir – Sheffield
Bemidji State forwards
Magnussen – Funk – Yuhas
Irey – Peer – McClennon
Panzer – Labelle – Namestnikov
Lund – Karlsson – Quinn
Bemidji State defense
Wolfe – Thornton
Vig – Parekh
Roelofs – Satosaari
Henderson
Bemidji State goalies
Hildebrand – Robbins
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