By Ariba Shahid
KARACHI, Pakistan (Reuters) – Former Pakistani Prime Minister and cricket superstar Imran Khan received a 10-year jail sentence on Tuesday for leaking state secrets in the harshest punishment yet of multiple cases he faces.
In prison since August, the popular 71-year-old Khan denies wrongdoing and accuses the military of persecution. Following are comments from analysts about what this means for Khan ahead of Pakistan’s parliamentary election on Feb. 8.
MADIHA AFZAL, ANALYST & BROOKINGS SCHOLAR
“It was apparent that the state was using the cipher case to sideline Khan completely. Khan’s (predictable) sentence is part of the (military) establishment’s usual playbook before elections.
“The irregularities of the trial have now cast an even greater shadow on polls that had already lost their credibility given the extent of pre-poll manipulation that’s taken place.”
MICHAEL KUGELMAN, SENIOR ASSOCIATE FOR SOUTH ASIA AT THE WOODROW WILSON INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR SCHOLARS
“In terms of Khan’s electoral prospects, the impact of the verdict is purely symbolic. Khan had already received a separate prison sentence that prevents him from participating in polls.
“But the verdict also delivers a sharper blow to his broader politics. Khan’s populism has long revolved around fighting corruption and railing against what he views as U.S. policy and pressure that hurt Pakistan’s interests.
“And yet he’s now been jailed for both corruption and for exposing what he describes, albeit wrongly, as plans for a U.S. plot against him.
“This may further boost his popularity. But it also means his politics have been checkmated in a big way by the very state that he has long criticised and confronted.”
MAZHAR ABBAS, PAKISTANI JOURNALIST AND ANALYST
“His supporters may come out in large numbers to cast votes… The decision coming out just before elections will not only help him politically but it wall also raise questions about the elections’ credibility.”
MOSHARRAF ZAIDI, PAKISTANI WRITER, ANALYST AND FORMER POLICY ADVISOR TO THE MINISTRY OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS
“Imran Khan’s jail sentence is another indication of the system-wide barrier to his participation in the political process. It will validate his supporters’ belief that the system is rigged to deny him and his party the path back to the prime minister’s office.
“Regardless of the way it is received, the judgment will not be able to withstand the scrutiny of an appeal because of a range of procedural issues.
“Lost in this fog of partisanship will be the more serious question of whether leaders of a country should be bound by constraints like the Secrets Act, or whether the virtue of popularity insulates them from such restrictions. As evident in the case of Donald Trump and now Khan, in the age of populism these kinds of cases will only grow in quantum.”
ZAIGHAM KHAN, POLITICAL ANALYST
“The situation is likely to have a disheartening impact on the voters and supporters of PTI, conveying the notion that their leader might not be released in the near future.
“Given the party’s strong dependence on Imran Khan’s charisma and his ability to mobilize support, this could cast uncertainty on the party’s future prospects.”
(Reporting by Ariba Shahid in Karachi; Editing by Nick Macfie)
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